Oscar nominations are like a grade school competition where everyone gets a certificate of merit. Thanks for playing. It’s the awards themselves that separate the wheat from the chaff.
The deadline for voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences ballots has passed. But until the ceremony Sunday on ABC nominees inhabit that crack in time where the future is undecided and they too may be a winner.
Which means it’s that time of the year and day of the week when tea leaf readers come out of the woodwork to proclaim and explain why a film or performance will win. Of course no one knows, and your guess is as good as theirs or mine. So guess along with me. Though one or two films might be considered frontrunners here’s why each nominated film could win best picture.
“American Sniper”
- Why it will win: Clint Eastwood’s best film since 2008’s “Gran Torino.” Highest grossing film of the nominees, at more than $300 million. Allows liberal Oscar voters to rise above politics and connect with mainstream. Eastwood is an institution and respected member of the Hollywood community.
- Why it will lose: Predominately liberal Oscar voters feel queasy about war in general and the wars in the Mideast in particular. Critics of the film, mostly on the left, note the lack of historical context.
“Birdman”
- Why it will win: Narcissism. Hollywood loves itself and film about craft and performance will look reassuringly familiar, as did previous winners “Argo” and “The Artist.” Dazzling backstage travelogue through a complex warren of dingy theater corridors in countless tracking shots.
Why it will lose: Too clever by half. Conservative voters may see its surreal style and ambiguous ending as affectations. No editing nomination despite visual distinctiveness.
“Boyhood”
- Why it will win: Triumph of continuity and restraint from visionary director Richard Linklater. Brilliant and daring anthropological device allows film to unfold and expand like real life.
Why it will lose: Deceptively simple storytelling may elude narratively linear thinking voters.
“Grand Budapest Hotel”
- Why it will win: Wes Anderson is as much architect as auteur and his film is unique among the nominees as a combination of artistry and imagination. Beat “Birdman” for the Golden Globe.
Why it will lose: Anderson is an acquired taste. Voters may see “Budapest” as the sum total of its parts, including production design by Oscar nominated Brookfield native Adam Stockhausen.
“The Imitation Game”
Why it will win: Oscar voters love a historical biopic. Studio marketing effectively compared the heroic portrait of the closeted homosexual who helped win World War II but who was stigmatized after the war, with civil rights advances today.
Why it will lose: Overly familiar storytelling, and charges of inaccuracy.
“Selma”
Why it will win: It would be a travesty if voters chose a British biopic over this historically and culturally significant American story. A win would be a chance for predominately white Academy voters to for ignoring the film’s director and star.
Why it will lose: The Academy is 94% white. One “brutally honest” voter explaining her ballot to the said the film “isn’t that good” and was offended because its stars and filmmakers showed up at the premiere wearing “I can’t breathe” t-shirts.
“The Theory of Everything”
Why it will win: Eddie Redmanyne gives the sort of transformative performance, as the physicist Stephen Hawking grappling with ALS, Academy voters love. Also, Oscar voters love biopics.
Why it will lose: Got momentum when Redmayne won a Golden Globe but may have peaked too early. Splits the British biopic vote with “The Imitation Game.”
“Whiplash”
Why it will win: In the preferential voting process voters rank their favorites. As films with the lowest first place totals are eliminated second choices on the ballots of those that chose it are added to the remaining films’ totals, until one film gets 50%. I don’t get it either. Indiewire explains it e. It’s conclusion, however, is that if a film doesn’t win right away, those further down the list have a chance.
Oh, and it has the highest score of any nominee – 8.6 out of ten – on IMDB.com.
Why it will lose: If you have to come up with an explanation as convoluted as above, chances are dim.
Posted by